Football betting news and notes: Notre Dame in ominous spot at Duke

By Eric Dewberry and Marcus DiNitto, BetIndiana News

The Irish, still in contention for a 10-win season and a New Year’s Six bowl invite after a close call last Saturday, is road chalk at Duke on Saturday.

Purdue, meanwhile, is a rare road favorite at Northwestern, last winning at Ryan Field in 2010.

In Big Ten action, oddsmakers opened No. 3 Ohio State as 44-point chalk over Maryland, the Buckeyes’ largest B1G spread in recent history.

Before we get to this week’s NFL action, here’s a closer look at Week 11 college football games of local interest.

No. 15 Notre Dame (-6.5, 52) at Duke

Notre Dame orchestrated a miraculous 18-play, 87-yard drive in the final minutes of regulation to eke out a 21-20 come-from-behind win over Virginia Tech, barely surviving as a 17.5-point favorite.

The Blue Devils might be the last opponent head coach Brian Kelly wants to see after Saturday’s scare. Why? They were the last team to shock the program as double-digit underdogs. As a 19-point pup in Week 4 of the 2016 season, Duke stunned then-No. 16 Notre Dame, 38-35. Current Giants QB Daniel Jones led the Blue Devils in an evenly-contested battle, the victory sealed with a 19-yard field goal with 1:24 remaining in the fourth quarter.

Kelly is not particularly good at motivating the Irish on the road following an ATS loss in South Bend, going 6-11 SU and 7-10 ATS all-time in this situation. This includes failing to cover six of nine as the betting favorite.

Duke has won just five of 27 matchups against ranked opponents in the David Cutcliffe-era, going 12-15 ATS. The UNDER is 17-9-1 under these conditions, the bet cashing in seven straight games.

Purdue (-1.5, 43.5) at Northwestern

Northwestern is 7-1 SU and 6-2 ATS in the last eight meeting with Purdue, the typically formidable Pat Fitzgerald defense holding the Boilermakers to a 19.0 scoring average.

Purdue, in fact, has come up short of market point projections in six of the contests. This might help explain why the total for this Week 11 contest dropped from 45 to 43.5 after 10 minutes on the oddsboard.

Maryland at No. 3 Ohio State (-44, 65.5)

The 44-point spread is the highest in modern history for Ohio State against a Big Ten opponent. The Buckeyes laid 40 points to Northwestern in 1981 and were -39.5 favorites hosting Illinois in 1997 in their next largest oddsboard gaps.

The Terps are 0-12 SU and 3-9 ATS in road B1G contests against ranked opponents since joining the conference, losing by 27.9 points per game. Generating any kind of offense is the issue with a 10.7 scoring average.

Elsewhere around the Big Ten…

No. 5 Penn State is a 6.5-point favorite at No. 13 Minnesota. Upsets are rare in recent Big Ten ranked clashes. Betting favorites are 17-1 SU and 14-3-1 ATS in the last 18 matchups, covering a 9.0 spread by 6.7 points.

Michigan State, laying 13.5 points to Illinois, is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 games hosting unranked opponents at Spartan Stadium
Wisconsin was pegged 2.5-point chalk at home vs. Iowa in Game of the Year Lines at Golden Nugget back in May, but the

No. 16 Badgers have been as high as -10 in early wagering Sunday. The No. 18 Hawkeyes have dropped six of the last seven in the series, going 2-5 ATS overall.

More: College football betting coverage

Colts lay big number against hot ATS Dolphins

The Colts opened as 13-point favorites for their Week 10 home game against the Dolphins, but with the betting market expecting Brian Hoyer to start at quarterback in relief of the hobbled Jacoby Brissett, the number was bet down to -11 within a few hours.  In advanced lines offered in Las Vegas last week, the Colts were priced at -15.5.

With Sunday’s loss to the Steelers, Indy dropped to 5-3 straight up on the season and to second place in the AFC South, passed by the Texans, who improved to 6-3 with a 26-3 rout over the Jaguars in London. It was the second straight against-the-spread loss for the Colts, who kicked off as 1-point underdogs at Heinz Field.

Hard as it is to fathom, Miami is the one of the hottest bets in the NFL, covering the spread in four straight contests, including as 3.5-point home dogs in a 26-18 outright win over the Jets in Week 9. While it the was the Dolphins’ first win of the season, consider them underrated by the betting market.

Bears continue to sink

The Bears are also seeing the market move against them in early Week 10 betting action, but for different reasons than the Colts. For next week’s home game against the Lions, Chicago was -3.5 on look-ahead lines, reopened -3 (-120) Sunday night and are down to -3 (even) Monday morning.

When oddsmakers in May hung lines on every game of the NFL season through Week 16, the Bears were 8-point favorites in this spot vs. the Lions.

Latent offensively, the Bears have lost four in a row, both SU and ATS, and as far as public bettors are concerned, they’ve lost their charm.

The Lions, too, are in the midst of a bad run, their 31-24 loss at Oakland marking their fourth in their last five outings. After four straight covers, Detroit has failed to cash three games in a row.

More: NFL betting coverage

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Posted on 2019 Nov 05