Early point spread for Colts-Chiefs primetime clash suggests overreaction to loss to Raiders

By Joe Rodgers and Marcus DiNitto, BetIndiana News

The banged-up Colts came out flat in Week 4 against the Raiders, but based on early point spreads for Sunday night’s game in Kansas City, the betting market may have overreacted to the home loss.

In advanced betting lines posted a week ago in Las Vegas, oddsmakers listed the Colts as 8.5-point underdogs at Arrowhead Stadium. But as Sunday’s Week 4 action was wrapping up, Kansas City -10 was posted on betting boards, and the number had been bet up to -11 by Monday.

It’s not like the Chiefs were overly impressive in a comeback non-cover win over the Lions, so if the Colts get back a combination of WR T.Y. Hilton, LB Darius Leonard and DL Tyquan Lewis, you can bet professional bettors will be looking to take the points with the road underdogs.

Professional bettors, known as “sharps”, have faded the Chiefs successfully against the spread the past two weeks with bets on the Ravens (at +6 and 6.5) and Lions (at +6.5 and 7). With the majority of early public money on Kansas City, there’s a chance the spread continues to climb before the market sees resistance from respected bettors.

One reason sharps have targeted Chiefs’ opponents is that Kansas City’s poor defense tends to leave the backdoor open for the underdog to cover. Allowing 186 rushing yards to the Lions, K.C. is giving up 5.9 yards per carry and 426.3 total yards per game. The Chiefs’ 6.3 yards per play allowed is worse than last season’s 5.8, despite facing mediocre offenses in the Jaguars, Raiders, Ravens and Lions.

If Indianapolis can avoid turnovers that plagued it against Oakland, Marlon Mack and Jacoby Brissett should be able to move the ball on this K.C. defense, one of the reasons why Sunday’s Colts-Chiefs game has the highest total (57) on the betting board for Week 5.

The Colts want to emulate the Lions’ offensive approach and control the time of possession by running the ball and keeping Patrick Mahomes and Co. off the field. Keeping the NFL’s highest-scoring offense (33.8 ppg) off the field is one thing, stopping them from scoring is another. Indy ranks 26th in opponents’ yards per play at 6.2 and is second-to-last behind only the Chiefs in allowing 5.5 yards per carry.

Despite the large total, over 70% of the early wagers across the betting market backed the OVER, per Sports Insights. But based on betting trends, the UNDER may be a strong contrarian play. Since the start of the 2015 season, the Chiefs have the best UNDER record at home, going 24-9-3.

One of those Chiefs UNDERs came in last season’s playoff game against the Colts, when Indy managed just 266 total yards in a 31-13 loss as 4.5-point underdogs with a total of 54 points. One can blame the poor performance on the snow and muck, but Indy has been bad on grass as an away underdog since the start of the 2017 season, going just 2-7 straight up and never scoring more than 24 points.

Colts at Chiefs betting trends

 Since the start of the 2015 season, NFL home favorites of 10 points or more are 47-29-2 ATS and 44-32-2 to the UNDER.

 UNDER is 11-3 in the Colts’ last 14 games following a straight-up loss.

 Colts are 8-1 ATS in their last nine games vs. a team with a winning record.

 The UNDER in Sunday Night Football has been profitable since 2017, going 21-14-1.

Oddsmakers adjust to Chase Daniel

What is the change from Mitchell Trubisky to Chase Daniel worth to the betting line? About a point and a half, according to adjustments on oddsboards for the Bears’ Week 5 game in London against the Raiders.

With Daniel in as Chicago’s likely starter, the Bears are priced as 4.5- to 5-point favorites in the first of this season's five NFL games to be played abroad, adjusted from the -6 and -6.5 the Westgate was dealing for advanced lines last week.
Eyes will also be on Bears all-world linebacker Khalil Mack in his first game against his former team.
NFL Week 5 betting notes

All four teams in the AFC South sit at 2-2 after four weeks.  In Week 5, the Texans are 5-point home favorites over the reeling Falcons, the Titans are -2.5 at home against the one-loss Bills, and the Jaguars are 3.5-point underdogs at Carolina

in a matchup of teams that have both won two in a row behind second-string quarterbacks.

On advanced betting lines last week, the Rams were as high as 2.5-point favorites for the Week 5 Thursday nighter in Seattle. But they were embarrassed at home by the Bucs on Sunday, and by Monday, were 1-point underdogs on most oddsboards.

The marquee NFC matchup between Green Bay and Dallas sees the Cowboys priced as 3.5-point home favorites, down from -4.5 following the Packers’ loss to the Eagles on Thursday.

Even with the Dolphins on a bye, this season’s wave of outlandish spreads continues with the Patriots laying more than two touchdowns at winless Washington, and the Eagles spotting 14 to the visiting Jets.

For more NFL betting information and insight, visit BetIndiana News.

Posted on 2019 Oct 02